Chicago’s Shared Housing Ordinance lets residential buildings opt into a prohibited-buildings list that bars short-term rentals. Hundreds of buildings have joined since 2015. Does removing Airbnb-style listings make neighborhoods more affordable for long-term renters — or does it actually push rents up?
What we found
“STR prohibitions do not lower rents.” Banning short-term rentals in Chicago is associated with a $3–10/month increase in long-term rental prices — and the effect grows over time.
| Finding | Detail |
|---|---|
| Average effect | +$6/month in long-term rents (95 % CI: $3–10) |
| Growing over time | +$2.50 in year 1 → +$8.60 by year 3 |
| Stronger where STR density is high | Tracts with more Airbnb listings see larger increases |
| Spillovers to neighbors | Adjacent never-treated tracts see ~$18/month increases |
The mechanism is counterintuitive: prohibitions signal residential stability, attracting long-term renters and bidding up prices. The demand effect outweighs the supply gain.
Read the research
One-page summary for city leadership and stakeholders. Technical paper
Full methods, difference-in-differences results, robustness checks, and appendix.
About
This project was produced by the University of Chicago Data Science Institute in partnership with the City of Chicago Department of Technology and Innovation. The full analysis pipeline, data, and source code are available in the GitHub repository.